HomeWorld NewsU.S. Midterm Election Results May Have An Impact On Xi Jinping Meeting

U.S. Midterm Election Results May Have An Impact On Xi Jinping Meeting

With less than a week left until the G20 summit in Indonesia, U.S. and Chinese officials are still actively planning a summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit.

As President Biden is about to meet Xi Jinping, the United States held a much-anticipated midterm election on Tuesday (November 8). The final result has not yet been fully released. However, it is widely expected that the Democratic Party will likely lose its majority in the House of Representatives. Congress and bipartisan politics will also be further polarized. Analysts worry that the election will have a major impact on the direction of President Biden’s administration over the next two years and will also add new challenges to a possible face-to-face meeting between the leaders of the United States and China.

“Xi Jinping and Biden arrived in Bali from very different backgrounds,” said Craig Singleton, a senior China expert at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy (FDD), a nonpartisan think tank. “Xi Jinping consolidated power control at the party’s 20th Party Congress, bringing his greatest strength to the meeting, while Biden will come to Indonesia shortly after his party’s setback in the midterm elections.”

Chinese leader Xi Jinping not only won an exceptional third term at the recent 20th National Congress but also managed to make all six members of the Standing Committee his most trusted officials. By contrast, Biden’s Democratic Party has not only lost the governorship of some large states. However, it may also lose control of the House of Representatives.

“It’s a very unbalanced situation,” Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for Global Security Analysis (IAGS), a Washington think tank, told VOA. He pointed out that one side is very strong, the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong; the other side, the United States is a weak president, and this imbalance is not conducive to the summit’s success.

“President Biden knows that the Republicans will be watching his words and deeds, and as a result, he will not be able to compromise and give the impression that he is weak in China. And Xi Jinping is so engrossed in his success that he feels there is no need to compromise. So I think this imbalance between the relative power of the two leaders is not conducive to the success of the meeting,” Luft said.

But on the other hand, analysts also pointed out that under the American system, even if the Republican Party wins this election, the president can still do a lot in diplomacy, and China is well aware of this.

Dale Buckner, chief executive of Global Guardian, an international security firm, said Republicans were powerless to unilaterally block the administration’s intended agenda or set the tone for U.S.-China negotiations.

“What we’re talking about right now is diplomacy and setting the tone and opening the lines of communication, and the Republicans can’t stop that; they can’t stop President Biden and the U.S. State Department from having a clear, unambiguous dialogue and dialogue with China,” he told VOA. Communication. So no matter what happens politically in America, it will not stop anyone in the president or the administration from having those discussions.”

The first face-to-face meeting between Biden and Xi was more than a decade ago when Biden was the vice president of the United States, and Xi Jinping was the vice president of China. The two governments have not yet finalized whether the meeting will be held. If the summit takes place as scheduled, it will be the first face-to-face meeting between the two since Biden took office.

In the more than two years since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, Xi Jinping has rarely traveled or hosted foreign leaders. However, after further cementing his leadership in a leadership shake-up late last month, Xi Jinping has recently begun to return to the world stage, meeting with leaders from many countries, including German Chancellor Scholz, Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, and Pakistani Prime Minister. Shabazz, President Hassan of Tanzania.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo revealed on Tuesday (November 8) that the leaders of 17 countries have confirmed their attendance at the summit, including Biden and Xi Jinping.

Besides Biden, key foreign leaders expected to meet Xi next week could include Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Analysts said that the series of intensive meetings after the 20th National Congress was, in a sense, to demonstrate the respect and approval of the international community for Xi Jinping’s reorganization of the top leadership.

A CNN report said Xi’s diplomatic agenda showed that he was no longer willing to give up his position as a world leader. If only Wang Yi had been sent to the summit, a reduced presence on the world stage could hamper Xi’s diplomatic clout as a leader working to elevate China’s global standing.

As the relationship between the two countries has deteriorated sharply in recent years, contact between government officials on both sides has also decreased significantly, a trend that the new crown epidemic has exacerbated. The Wall Street Journal reported that officials from both countries said this increased the importance of the communication channel for the meeting with Xi. In addition, officials from both countries believe that direct talks between Biden and Xi are the most effective communication channel between the two major powers.

Shortly after the start of Xi Jinping’s unprecedented third term of leadership, China has recently appeared to be sending out what could be seen as a desire to reduce friction and ease tensions.

In a phone call with U.S Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said. Secretary of State Blinken said at the end of last month that he hoped the relationship between the two countries “return to the track of stable development,” saying that this is in line with the common interests of China and the United States and is also the general expectation of the international community.

In an annual letter to the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations on the same day, Xi Jinping also said that China “is willing to work with the U.S. side to find the correct way to get along in the new era.”

The Foundation for Defence of Democracy’s Singleton said Xi was likely to turn the G20 meeting in Bali into a “zero spot” for China to compete for international discourse. In an email to VOA, he said Xi would try to show that China’s governance model is far superior to that of the United States and other major democracies “to offer mankind fresh possibilities.” He would attempt to contrast Western democracy with Chinese autocracy in a way that benefits Beijing by portraying Chinese autocracy as orderly and disparaging Western democracy as chaos, the source predicted.

Reopening the door to communication?

Heath Sloane, director of the Australian think tank The Strategic Intelligence Research Group (SIRG), said the summit comes at a critical time in U.S.-China relations. The Biden administration has recently adopted severe restrictions on China’s high-tech industry, which will have serious direct and long-term impacts on China’s semiconductor industry and related industries in the future. This might increase China’s willingness to have high-level discussions with the United States.

Sloan said China had been closely watching the U.S. midterm elections to see if Democrats or Republicans run Congress. China’s choice of the timing of this summit is a strategic consideration. The timing, he said, “is crucial to both parties, and hopefully, it signifies that both parties believe that they are in a situation where they can have sincere and fruitful negotiations.”

The China expert said that trends in the relationship between the two countries are naturally not dictated by a single meeting, so we need to understand them as part of a larger context for how the United States takes leadership on a changing global stage. As for the summit’s agenda, he said: “If I had to guess, I would say it would include the recent measures we have taken to restrict China’s semiconductor industry, including the state of the global economy, and I also think the Taiwan issue, etc., are on top of the agenda.”

Buckner, CEO of “Global Guardian Show,” also believes that the Taiwan issue is a major issue related to global well-being. Once a conflict breaks out, its impact will far exceed the current Ukraine war. This summit should be the first step to ease the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Step.

A research report by Global Guardian Show last month showed that U.S. business executives are deeply concerned about the situation in the Taiwan Strait. The enterprise security consulting firm surveyed 250 senior executives at large companies with more than 10,000 employees. They found that 58 percent were concerned about a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The report also pointed out that if the conflict in the Taiwan Strait escalates, almost all major U.S. companies may suffer some economic and security risk.

From chip restrictions to preparing to deploy long-range bombers in Australia, the Biden administration has infuriated China in recent weeks. China will not remain indifferent and will likely retaliate, said Luft of the Institute for Global Security Analysis. If the summit does take place, it would undoubtedly be a positive development, he said. However, there is a lack of trust between the two sides, and substantive issues are difficult to resolve.

“It (the summit) is symbolic in itself, but when it comes to fundamental issues, there are still major differences that cannot be resolved, certainly not a matter of an hour or two of conversation,” Luft said.

Buckner, a former U.S. military officer, said that people don’t have high expectations for the meeting with Xi, and the most important thing is that it is good to be able to start a dialogue. He said the meeting would not change the intentions of China and the United States. If it goes well, the outcome of this meeting is that both sides agree that discussions need to start and that they must reach a compromise.

According to Buckner, that is what we should anticipate: “if we can acquire these two things and agree to open the channel and open up a real conversation, not rhetoric, not outlining points, but a real talk behind the scenes diplomatically.”

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